According to an analysis of public statements conducted by China Policy Research, the bill to force divestiture of TikTok is likely to pass if it is brought to a floor vote in the United States Senate.

H.R. 7521, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, would force TikTok to divest itself from its Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-controlled parent company ByteDance, or face a ban in the United States. Under new amendments agreed to by Senate Commerce Committee Chairwoman Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), TikTok would have 360 days to complete the sale to an owner in a trusted country.

The House of Representatives passed an amended version of H.R. 7521 in a package of bills on Saturday by a vote of 360-58. Next, the Senate must agree to the bill before it is sent to President Biden’s desk for a signature.

While only a few dozen Senators have affirmatively declared that they will vote in favor of the bill, the number of Senators who are likely to vote in favor has reached the 60-vote threshold necessary to send the bill to Biden’s desk, according to CPR’s analysis.

As of the time of publication, China Policy Research has identified affirmative support for the legislation from 28 Senators, 22 Senators who have made statements on HR. 7521 that imply a likely ‘yes’ vote, and 11 Senators who have previously supported legislation to remove TikTok from Chinese government influence. In total, this brings the threshold of likely yes votes to 61, with 30 Senators yet to take a public position on the legislation.

A position of “Lean YES” was determined if a Senator has spoken about H.R. 7521 in a way that implies he or she is broadly supportive of the legislation but has not officially stated that he or she will vote in favor. For example, Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that the bill is “probably something I would support.”

Similarly, a position of “Lean NO” was determined if a Senator has spoken about H.R. 7521 in a way that implies he or she is unlikely to support the bill’s passage. For example, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) said, “I have real concerns about picking out one company and saying, there are problems with their scraping up all of our private data and using it however they want, and letting other companies continue to engage in very similar behavior.”

A position of “Historical YES” was determined if a Senator has not made affirmative statements about H.R. 7521 but has taken a position in favor of previous efforts to ban TikTok or force it to divest from Chinese government influence. Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), for example, was a cosponsor on S. 686, the RESTRICT Act, which would have banned social media apps like TikTok that are determined to be national security threats.

Just three Senators––Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ed Markey (D-MA), and Rand Paul (R-KY)––were determined to be firm ‘no’ votes. Six others have implied that they may vote ‘no.’

All of the positions analyzed are subject to change. However, it is likely that many of the Senators without public positions will end up voting for the bill, placing it comfortably over the number of votes necessary for passage.

China Policy Research will continue to update the predicted vote count ahead of the expected Senate vote on Tuesday, April 23rd.

See the full spreadsheet, with sources for each Senator’s position, here.