Biden Administration officials have repeatedly promised that there would be “significant consequences” for China if they assist Russia militarily or economically during the invasion of Ukraine, but so far few details of these potential consequences have been announced.

Over the weekend, administration officials spoke anonymously with several U.S. media outlets about intelligence which suggested that the Russia Federation had asked the People’s Republic of China for military equipment, support, and economic assistance to aid in their Ukraine war effort and to alleviate the pressure of international economic sanctions.

On Monday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki fielded a variety of questions on these reports. “What are the consequences for China if they do aid Russia?” asked one reporter.

“Well, I’m not going to get into specific consequences. I think what we have conveyed and what was conveyed by our National Security Advisor in [his meeting with Chinese officials in Rome] is that––should they provide military or other assistance that of course violates sanctions or supports the war effort––there will be significant consequences. But in terms of what those specifics look like, we would coordinate with our partners and allies to make that determination,” Psaki responded.

Another reporter asked whether, like with Russia, the Biden Administration was keeping “everything on the table” as potential consequences for China in the event that they provide aid.

“I’m just not going to be in a position to detail further from here… We’ll keep having a conversation over the coming days,” Psaki replied.

U.S. State Department Spokesman Ned Price echoed similar vague descriptions of consequences at a press briefing later that day: “We have been very clear both privately with Beijing and publicly with Beijing that there would be consequences for any such support.”

Although the Biden Administration to some extent followed a similar tactic of strategic ambiguity in initial warnings to Vladimir Putin prior to his invasion of Ukraine, this week’s public threats against China have been markedly less specific.

In late January, President Biden said, “I have made it clear early on to President Putin that if he were to move into Ukraine, that there would be severe consequences, including significant economic sanctions as well as I’d feel obliged to beef up our presence, NATO’s presence, on the eastern front, Poland, Romania, etc.” He further noted that “there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2” if Russia invaded and stated that he would consider placing sanctions directly on Putin.

While the implemented sanctions have ultimately gone even farther than President Biden initially seemed to imply, including cutting Russia off from the SWIFT global payment system and banning Russian energy imports, Chinese officials may wonder just how far the United States and their allies are willing to go in punishing the PRC.

Whereas Russia accounted for approximately 0.6% of total U.S. imports, China accounts for about 18%. While almost two-thirds of Americans said they are willing to support sanctions on Russia oil and gas even if gasoline prices increase in the United States, the much wider-reaching consequences of sudden US-China decoupling via sanctions would likely be met with greater pushback. Because of this, the Biden Administration would presumably be much less severe with China than they have been with Russia. Certainly, Chinese officials can be sure that their country would not be immediately severed from the global financial system.

China has so far denied the claims that Russia reached out to them for help in Ukraine at all. Ultimately, Chinese officials will need to weigh the benefits of a stronger Russian partner against the economic risks that are likely to come to their own country from the West as a result. While Chinese negotiators likely received more details on the “consequences” in private than have been discussed in public, an element of strategic ambiguity will help keep China on its toes––as those consequences may again turn out to be more severe than they expected.